Western Big Game Draw Odds

The point creep, the success rates, the units — from the official record.

Limited-entry draw odds for twelve Western states across nine big-game species. Pulled from each state F&W's own published draw results, normalized into a single per-unit, per-year, per-residency, per-weapon table. We don't estimate. We don't smooth. If a year isn't in the official record, it's a gap — not a guess.

12

Western states

9

Species we track

73

State × species draws

5

Years of history (2021–2025)

By state

Pick your state.

Each state F&W publishes results on its own schedule — most between May and July. Click in to see what's been ingested and where each scraper stands.

By species

Nine species, none second-class.

Pronghorn, bighorn, goat, moose — each gets the same per-unit, multi-year treatment as elk. Trophy bighorn tags are once-in-a-lifetime in nearly every state; the table shows the point creep that made them that way.

limited-entry
Elk
The single most-applied-for big-game species in the West. Limited-entry rifle units run hard on points; archery and general seasons often draw easier.
limited-entry
Mule deer
Trophy mule deer units are some of the hardest tags to draw in North America. Quality units routinely require double-digit points.
limited-entry
Whitetail deer
Limited Western opportunity — strongest in eastern MT, eastern WY, ID, and parts of WA/OR. Most units are general-season; controlled hunts exist in select districts.
limited-entry
Pronghorn antelope
Wyoming and Montana drive the West antelope draw. Doe/fawn tags often draw with zero points; trophy buck units climb.
once-in-a-lifetime
Bighorn sheep
Once-in-a-lifetime tag in nearly every Western state. Point creep is severe — many units now require 15+ points or are effectively random-draw lotteries.
once-in-a-lifetime
Mountain goat
Once-in-a-lifetime tag in most states. Tag pools tiny — typically single-digit allocations per unit. Hardest big-game tag to draw in much of the West.
once-in-a-lifetime
Moose
Limited to a handful of Western states (WY, ID, MT, UT, CO, WA, AK). Often once-in-a-lifetime. Point creep extreme in lower-48 states.
limited-entry
Black bear
Many states sell over-the-counter; the draw odds story applies to limited-entry spring hunts and quota units. Generally easier draws than ungulates.
limited-entry
Mountain lion
Most western states use quota-based units rather than a traditional draw — tags issued first-come or first-quota-met. Where draws exist, odds are generally favorable.

What is point creep

The math the trophy units run on.

In preference- and bonus-point states, every year you apply without drawing earns you a point. The next year, applicants with more points get drawn first. Over a decade, the minimum points needed to draw a quality unit can climb from 0 → 2 → 5 → 9. That climb is “point creep.”

Reading the trend tells you whether a unit is a viable plan or a generational wait. A flat trend means stable odds. A +5 over ten years means a new applicant today won't draw without burning a decade building points.

Illustrative point-creep curve

Sample curve only — to show what +6 creep looks like. Not from any specific unit.

+1
Stable. Add a point a year, draw eventually.
+3
Climbing. Long-term plan still viable.
+6 or more
Runaway. Treat as a multi-decade tag.

Sources

Twelve state F&W departments. One canonical schema.

Every row carries the source URL of the document it came from. Click through to verify any number on any unit page. We never aggregate without attribution.

Alaska
www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=permithunts.results
Arizona
www.azgfd.com/hunting/draw-information/
California
wildlife.ca.gov/Hunting/Big-Game/Drawings
Colorado
cpw.state.co.us/hunting/big-game
Idaho
idfg.idaho.gov/hunt/controlled/results
Montana
fwp.mt.gov/hunt/regulations/drawing-statistics
Nevada
www.ndow.org/hunt/big-game-draw-results/
New Mexico
www.wildlife.dgf.nm.gov/hunting/draw-information/
Oregon
myodfw.com/articles/controlled-hunt-statistics
Utah
wildlife.utah.gov/hunting/main-hunting-page/big-game/big-game-applications.html
Washington
wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/management/big-game-special-permits
Wyoming
wgfd.wyo.gov/licenses-applications/draw-results-odds

Methodology

Earned, not estimated.

Every row on every unit page comes from one of the twelve state F&W's own published draw-results documents. We don't infer, we don't interpolate, we don't fill gaps with regional averages.

Each state scraper documents its source URL on the state page so you can verify the source we're reading from. A unit with five years of recorded history shows five points on the chart — not ten with the middle smoothed in.

Point creep is computed as latest-year minimum points drawn minus earliest-available minimum. A unit with creep of +4 over the available window has gotten 4 points harder to draw across that span — same applicant pool, same hunt, four years of additional points to compete with.

Annual update cycle: scrapers run after each state publishes its draw recap (typically May–July). Diffs land as pull requests for review before they go live.

Currently 8,296 rows ingested across 1 states.